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Edited by The Smoker II:
11/30/2014 3:44:13 AM
23
If you flip a coin a hundred times and it's heads every time the odds of it being heads on flip 101 is still 50/50. Every week when RNG spins it's a 1/6 chance of being any exotic regardless of what happened before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSc4oLA9e8o
Watch this video it very clearly illustrates why compound probability doesn't matter in independent events. The mistake many are making is known as the gambler's fallacy.
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Edit: Wanted to clear up the confusion and show some why this is a common mistake.
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There are more than 2 possibilities here. How can you not see two sides of a coin and 6 choices available are intrinsically different by number?
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Of course the numbers are different but this is a concept not an equation.
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Edited by Moonglow89: 11/28/2014 9:01:24 PMThe individual flips are still 50/50, but the compounded probability is not. To get heads: First flip = 50/50. Second flip = 50/50. What that means is you have a 25% chance of getting TWO heads in a row. Here are the 4 options of results: Heads/Heads = 25% Heads/Tails = 25% Tails/Heads = 25% Tails/Tails = 25% One flip further: Heads/Heads/Heads = 12.5% Heads/Heads/Tails = 12.5% Heads/Tails/Heads = 12.5% Heads/Tails/Tails = 12.5% Tails/Heads/Heads = 12.5% Tails/Heads/Tails = 12.5% Tails/Tails/Heads = 12.5% Tails/Tails/Tails = 12.5% For something to occur of the possibilities for the Warlock that many times in a row is statistically improbable, because if it were RNG, it would be nearly impossible, due to lack of computational error. Because it would roll what class item type it is + what actual item. Of the 4 armor types and six possible options for chest...it's even less than the coin flip example.
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Your work here clearly shows what I'm talking about. The probability of Xur selling Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% if your math is correct (I didn't check it) you do realize every other possible combination of exotics has the exact same odds.
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Well...that's not how statistics also stack up. Because you are talking about individual results, not group statistics. Yes, every conceivable pattern has equal chances. Getting 100 heads in a row has the same chance as every 100 coin flip result, sure. But the chance of getting 1+ tails within 100 flips is much, much, much greater. Compound probability shows that getting 4 of the same thing in a row is significantly much rarer than getting different things, (as in a tails amongst heads.) It is more probable that Bungie hand picks which items to sell.
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Vegas loves people like you. [quote]Compound probability shows that getting 4 of the same thing in a row is significantly much rarer than getting different things, (as in a tails amongst heads.)[/quote] How are you not getting this compound probability doesn't apply to independent events. Look anywhere you want and find one scenario from a credible source that compound probability applies to independent events. If you can do that "gh0st wh1sp3r is the greatest" will by my signature on every post for a year. If you can't I win.
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Um. Compound probability DOES apply to a set of events, it's called "serial probability." The probability of getting 100 heads in a row is "nearly impossible" for the sake of statistics. Getting 50 heads and 50 tails total is the expected. Getting 100 in a row is astronomically difficult to do, save for rigging the system (a weighted coin.) The fact that you are suggesting that RNG statistics and Vegas gambling overlap is absurd and shows you have little understanding of statistics.
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I showed sources and evidence you offer your opinion. Where is your proof? You have none. I win you lose!
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Assuming that each roll isn't weighted. Each class could have a different roll on slot, and each slot could have a different roll on specific item, for all we know it could be a bell curve of possibilities for thee total items, which would put the odds of xur rolling anything two deviations away at a really low probability, this making actual odds of what we're seeing significant. There simply isn't enough information to compute it, and if we went about trying to prove any hypothesis, especially only 8 or so weeks in, we would have to conclude that their is a probability roll for specific classes. RNG in a computer system is never truly random anyhow, and they probably coded a loot table to add artificial longevity for certain items. IE, warlock is 40/40/20 in hands/chest/helm, and chest is 10/40/40/10 for the chest options. It isn't rocket appliances, but we can't use traditional computational statistics to try and make any accurate statement regarding this. I've heard rumor that bungie hand picks items for xur, but I would have to see a bungie confirmation for that. Anyhow, this argument is fairly moot as the OP demonstrated he wasn't approaching this conundrum openly, and is instead using useless numbers to prove a useless point.
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If Xur work the same way that the rng works in the game, he will have several different rolls that will complete change the math behind what you are trying to figure out. 1 would be to see what type of items he sells so that would be a 33.33% chance 1 would be what the items actually are, so depending on how many items of that type are it would be a 50% or 33.33% chance 1 would be the stats on the items ( only on the armor ) there are many different factors to try to think of when doing the math behind Xur lol.
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I'm not speaking of the probability of him getting it this week, I'm speaking of the probability of him getting it over this multitude of weeks.
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Those events are mutually exclusive and it doesn't matter. Yes the odds of it happening I a series are low, but you don't know the weighting, and the sample size is still a bit small, it will take almost a full 30 or so weeks within a 5ish % margin of error for him to drop everything he can. Doesn't mean he isn't RNG because a set of events is unlikely to occur, occurs.
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Somebody paid attention in stats!
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No the sample size isnt small. For this post the sample size is one. That is the whole problem with the op.
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Someone who understands how probability works. It's amazing.
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Apparently, not many people in this forum do.
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Well...not really. He's not understanding compounded probability, like I just explained.
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Too much sense you make.
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Actually, he's not addressing compound probability.
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Watch this video it very clearly illustrates why compound probability doesn't matter in independent events. The mistake you are making is known as the gambler's fallacy. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players. source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
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While I understand the Monte Carlo fallacy, you can't truly say it applies, seeing as the randomization of other items are following less repetitive patterns. In the coming weeks, see how often it applies as a whole. Monte Carlo is more often used within chance rolls of 3, as in the initial set of conditions, but watch the following weeks wherein the same pattern continues.
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You missed the point each week when RNG spins it's an independent event in no way affected by last week. The probability of what was selected is low but in no way effects what will happen in the future. It seems you want to believe bungie is out to get warlocks for no reason and have bad math to back it up. In which case this is just your conspiracy theory.
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How do they not understand?
