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11/28/2014 5:41:36 PM
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It doesn't seem to me that he is commenting on the possibility of Voidfang Vestments appearing each week; rather he is remarking on the probability of Voidfang Vestments appearing in consecutive weeks.
These are different.
English
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but you don't understand that the probability never changes. you can't calculate the probability of it happening multiple times in a row because they're not related at all
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Yes you can actually. And the way he did it is correct assuming independent events. Assuming 4 rolls of a fair 6 sided dice there are 6^4 possible strings of outcomes. (If we were flipping coins there would be 2^4=16 possible strings of outcomes). In only one of those strings do you get 4 voidfang vestments. But that's true of any particular outcome. So his conclusions are still not valid given his sample size.
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I already know. I got his situation confused with something different
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Fair enough! I see that now. The way the forums order posts is weird sometimes.
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Yes you can. Voids have 1/6 chance of appearing. So that never changes. The probability of voids appearing 4 weeks in a row is a whole different scenario. The probability of that scenario is what he calculated, look up some info on statistics and you'd understand this. Would you consider the chance of getting Raid gear twice in a row more rare than just once? Same thinking applies here
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Edited by Aramis633: 11/28/2014 5:53:36 PMI'm at work so I can't go into great length but you can calculate the probability of more than one consecutive identical outcome. I'm not a mathematician (and I'm short on time) so [url=http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Run.html]here's[/url] a link to a Wolfram article on the subject.
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I got this confused with law of averages, sorry about that! you're right
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No worries. Thanks for letting me know the confusion was cleared up.
