[quote]It will still be the same percentage regardless of how many times it happened in the past weeks.[/quote] Correct, which is why the OP raised 0.1666 to the fourth power. He never modified the week-to-week odds of the Vestments appearing, but the outcome was an astoundingly low percentage chance of the item appearing 4 times [b]in a row[/b]. Appearing =/= Appearing Consecutively Think of it like rolling a six-sided die. Every time you roll, you have a 1-in-6 chance of landing on a particular number - let's say 6. Roll 6 times, the odds for each number stay the same. But it's very mathematically improbable that you will land on 6, 6 times in a row. It's possible, just highly improbable. [b][i]That's[/i][/b] how statistics work. You and OP are both correct, just arguing different things.