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Edited by gcarlin1:
11/28/2014 11:27:36 AM
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Your maths is off, but I get what you are saying.
Each time there is a 1 in 6 chance of getting an item. Next time there is a 1 in 6 chance of getting the same item again. This is the same whether you roll once or 100 times. It is 16.3% every single time. There's no cumulative effect.
However consider this - there is a 5 in 6 chance you will get a different number, or item in this case, everytime the dice is cast so to speak. Thats an 83.3% chance something else will come up with every roll of the RNG - every single week.
I can only think that they choose the items or certain items are more likely to be rolled and it's not a straight 1 in 6 chance for every item.
English
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Sorry your numbers don't add to 100% also there is a cumulative effect when i speak of the chances of it happening 4 times in a row! but there is not when refering to the fact that there is a chance of receving an item during any given week!
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No its always 16.6 % every single roll, 4 times in a row or otherwise. However there is an 83.3333333333333 etc % chance of rolling something else every single time also - or at least there apparently is. Xur would seem to disagree with those numbers though :-/
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No the chances of the same item being rolled 4 times in a row will chance the factors and the chances.
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Edited by gcarlin1: 11/28/2014 11:39:51 AMFella there are 6 options. It's gonna randomly pick 1. The chances of it being the same one is 1/6 every single time. Doesn't matter how many times it comes up. It always has exactly 16.66666% of a chance of being rolled. Is it likely to be rolled 4 times in a row? No because the likelihood of something else, anything else is 83.33333% with every roll. So the odds would favour something else.
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Which is why the odds decrease.
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Which is why the odds decrease.
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Sorry speed typing on my phone :-) *16.6% :-)
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thats fine dont worry about it, i didnt mean to seem belittling or anything my bad if i was.
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Lol no worries fella - I do agree with you. Given your more likely to roll something else(5/6 opposed to 1/6) it's strange it's always the same items.
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True enough this we can agree on
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I give up - we'll agree to disagree whilst still agreeing - if you know what I mean my friend :-) lol
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Carlin, you're wrong. His initial calculations are correct and relevant
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Edited by gcarlin1: 11/28/2014 1:09:15 PMNo they're not entirely correct. If you roll a dice the chances of a single number coming up are exactly 1/6 - the next time you roll that dice the chances of the same number coming up are 1/6. You roll again what are the odds of the same number coming up? You guessed correct - they are the same as the first time you rolled the dice - 1/6 The odds of it coming up never decrease from roll to roll. However the odds of getting another number ie any other number are 5/6 every single roll. The effects are not cumulative. With every roll you have a 16.6% chance of rolling say a 1. It's 16.6% ON EVERY ROLL. Are you likely to keep rolling 1 ' s? No. There are 5 other numbers with an equal chance of being rolled. And put together there is an 83.3% chance you won't roll a 1.
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Yes, there is a 1/6 chance each time. But for it to occur twice in a row, there is a 1/36 chance. Not 1 in 6
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No you are not understanding. The odds of any number being rolled on each individual dice throw is static. It makes no odds how many times you roll. The chances of you getting a particular number are the same on every throw.
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Yeah, they are the same on each throw I'm not saying it's 1/6 on first and 1/36 on second, it's 1/36 for both together. It's like flipping two coins at once, 1/2 chance to get heads on each, but 1/4 to get heads on both
