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Edited by YahyaTV:
11/28/2014 11:06:13 AM
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[b]Each week is an independent event and is irrelevant to what has appeared previously. so the probability of a particular armor coming up in a given week will always be 1 in 6 (unless more armor is added to Xurs inventory.)[/b]
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He's talking about the chances of it being rolled five weeks in a row, or a hundred weeks in a row. If you still think the chance of rolling a six on a regular die in twenty thousand rolls is one in six, then math has escaped you my friend.
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Edited by YahyaTV: 11/28/2014 1:30:05 PMMaths does not escape me. I understand what OP is saying and what you are saying. But you do not understand what I am saying. The probability that in any given week that a given piece of armor will drop is 1 in 6. For the same armor to appear 4 times in a row I agree with OPs comment that it is 0.07703% No, the chances of rolling a six on a regular die 20K times in a row are (1/6)^20K i.e. highly unlikely and pretty close to impossible, but the chances of a six rolling on the 20,000th time is 1 in 6 and every other time. A question, what is the chance of Voidfang appearing next week? Is it 1 in 6 or is it (1/6)^5 = 0.01286% If you think the chances of Voidfang appearing next week is 0.01286% then you suffer from Monte Carlo fallacy, because the correct answer is 1 in 6 (assuming every exotic is weighted equally)
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It's one in six, and the week after that it will still be one in six, and the week after that, and week after that too, unless they add another item into the mixture. Though if we continue to see the Voidfang Vestments week after week after week, then it's fair to assume that the chances aren't one in six at all. Sorry if I didn't get my point across in my last post.
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Exactly. It's mutually exclusive probability. It's exactly the same as the chances of rolling a 6 on a dice 4 times in a row. Anyone who thinks its 1 in 6 still try it. You may be there a while lol 1/1296 ;)
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Haha yeah, played many a dice game and can attest to this! EDIT: DAMN YOU YAHTZEE!!!!!
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Edited by YahyaTV: 11/28/2014 11:23:31 AMTake a regular die and consider the probabilities: 1st Roll: 1/6 chance to roll a 4 2nd Roll: 1/6 chance to roll a 4 3rd roll: 1/6 chance to roll a 4 4th Roll: 1/6 chance to roll a 4 Chances of rolling a 4 from 6 choices 4 times in a row is (1/6)^4 = 1/1296 But if you notice each roll is always 1 in 6 Now substitute 1st roll / 2nd Roll etc for 1st WEEK and substitute chance to roll a 4, to chance for Voidfang to be on Rotation Each week the chance of a given armor will always be 1 in 6. Whilst I agree the chances of getting the same armor for increasing [b]consecutive weeks[/b] the chances get slimmer every time, but the probability remains the same[b] for a given week[/b] to turn up
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You're missing the point completely.
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The chances of getting Week 1 Voidfang, Week 2 Heart of Praxic Fire, Week 3 Nemesis Helm, Week 4 Skull of Dire Ahamatra is still 1/1296, explain to me how I am missing the point completely?!
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Edited by S2H UK: 11/28/2014 3:40:11 PMThat EXACT order you stated is 1/1296 but we're NOT looking at exact order of items. For 4 DIFFERENT items to come out its 6/6 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6. Which is substantially more chance than hitting the same roll 4 times in a row. Use your head!
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Edited by nightwing87: 11/28/2014 4:31:11 PM^This^.. I'm having trouble understanding why this is so hard for people to get! lol.. The fact that Xur has sold voidfang 4 weeks in a row doesn't necessarily disprove that RNG, but the unlikeliness of it supports the idea that what Xur sells may not be completely random. We're just hypothesizing here using statistic. Is it impossible to get voidfang vesements 4 times in a row? No; but is it unlikely? Yes. Edit: Also, the numbers we're using is the assumption that Voidfangs has a 1/6 chance of coming up when it may not have been programmed that way.
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You are wrong. It's a 1/1296 chance of same 4 weeks in a row. OP is correct
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But the probability of Voidfang to appear this week was 1 in 6.
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I am not wrong, whilst I agree getting the same armor 4 weeks in a row is (1/6)^4 or as you put it 1/1296 For the Voidfang to come up this week, the chance was 1/6, because it is an [b]independent [/b]event and irrelevant to what has come before and next week the chance of Voidfang again will be 1/6
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Yes but we're not talking about this week on its own. We're talking about it appearing 4 weeks in a row. Which if the system is working on RNG it's virtually impossible (not quite impossible) but we know Bungie are picking the items anyway as a developer admitted it.
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You can't use math to determine if randomness exists or not. It's random. There's no way to know. Odds of repeat armor go down, absolutely. But on any given week his chance is still 1 in 6. I don't understand why this is so hard to understand.
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Thank you
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How do you think RNG works then?? It's an algorithm. As in a maths algorithm and is not truly random. Based on the ASSUMPTIONS made the maths is correct.
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Virtually impossible? The sample size is way too small to even make such an assumption, Bungie only pick the items that are on rotation, not when they will come up on rotation.
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You are speaking during each individual week, we are speaking on a 4 in a row basis, i understand that much
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Haha THIS guy ^
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Edited by ThePomegranate: 11/28/2014 10:43:42 AMThe odds of getting 1 during a given week is still 1/6, but the odds of a repeated showing will change.
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Odds and probability are two different entities.
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Edited by peanuts: 11/28/2014 10:58:39 AMThe odds decrease, yes. Probability tells us that much. But you can't use probability to determine if randomness exists, so your original point is moot. Hell, unless people can get their hands on destiny's source code we don't actually know if Xur is random at all. He could just be following a really, really long pattern. We can look at the odds of this particular pattern occurring and notice that they're astronomically low, but we still can't know for sure. http://www.random.org/analysis/dilbert.jpg
