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originally posted in:Sapphire
Edited by Dustin:
2/1/2013 1:53:04 AM
10
The Iranian capability of a strike against Israel
No doubt you've heard Iran claiming 'any attack on Syria, is an attack on Iran' in wake of Israel's air strike on a weapons convey in Syria.
Syria - Russia's Israel
Iran - China's oil whore
Iran in itself can't attack Israel, even with a missile, which would be bound to get shot down within minutes. But both Syria and Iran are allies of the two biggest superpowers in Asia. Many times have we speculated this worst case scenario, but this event could actually bring it life.
Militarily, I'm not concerned about the safety of our mainland. If this were to happen decades in the future, I'd be very concerned about the life blood of American communication, our undefended and fragile satellites, a sure target to cripple one's army in an instant. Unfortunately, and probably fortunately for some, space combat isn't unrealistic, and we're going to need to protect our satellites in the future when such a threat becomes reality whether that be our communication or a possible SDI system around Earth.
Economically, I'm unsure if the US could find another country willing to loan much more money for us. If we're in a war -- with China and Russia -- our military spending will rise, high. All trade would be cut, and for us the impacts are less severe since moving our factories to a different country wouldn't be as economically straining as China's lost consumer base.
Who would China care about more: Iran's oil, or our consumerism? We don't have the time to ramp up our oil exports with the recent shale findings across the US to sell to China to relieve their dependence on Iran. And oil is essential, much more essential than Russia's need for influence on the middle east (Syria).
Believe it or not, Iran is holding all the cards, and they can wager their oil and force China into such a conflict. And Russia isn't out of the question either.
Could this actually be the beginning to a larger war?
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They're capable of doing so. They're just not willing to take a potshot at Isreal, because they'd be signing their own death warrants. Looking at what happened during the 6 Day War, I'd think long and hard about messing with Isreal if I were Iran's leaders.
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Edited by Death: 2/5/2013 5:41:36 AMWE'RE -blam!-ED, WE'RE -blam!-ED!! GO IN YOUR BUNKERS!!
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[quote]Iran in itself can't attack Israel, even with a missile, which would be bound to get shot down within minutes.[/quote] If they shoot enough ballistic and cruise missiles, they can -blam!- Israel up. During Operation Millenium Challenge 2002 (a U.S. war-game) the Red force representing an Iran-Iraq hybrid managed to sink the greater part of the U.S. fleet sent to the combat zone. They utilized a variety a ballistic and cruise missiles to, alongside suicide boats and planes, overwhelm our defenses. [quote]Unfortunately, and probably fortunately for some, space combat isn't unrealistic, and we're going to need to protect our satellites in the future when such a threat becomes reality whether that be our communication or a possible SDI system around Earth.[/quote] You're on the right path, but an attack on our satellites from Iran would be cyber based, not missile. It's also important to remember, rather luckily, not all of our communications relies on satellites. On a tactical level, maybe even theater level, our communications can remain intact through AWACS and the such. [quote]Economically, I'm unsure if the US could find another country willing to loan much more money for us.[/quote] I agree. [quote]If we're in a war -- with China and Russia -- our military spending will rise, high.[/quote] Realistically speaking, neither Russia nor China would go to war with us over Iran. [quote]Believe it or not, Iran is holding all the cards, and they can wager their oil and force China into such a conflict. And Russia isn't out of the question either.[/quote] Not really, China isn't going to go to war with us over Iranian oil, because they know that if they do, we'll deny them any and all oil. Plus, it's economic suicide for them. All that effort towards creating a reinvigorated economy would have been wasted.
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2 RepliesSyria is by no means vitally important to either Russia or China. Syria maintains a relatively small naval base officially owned by Russia, which it can sail its unfortunately small Mediterranean-bound fleets to. Syria is also a major importer of Russian armaments. So is half the world. [i]Civilian sales of AK-type weapons in the US[/i] make up nearly [i]a third[/i] of sales from the Izhmash factory where they're made. Russia can very much do without Syria, and I am wholly confident they will not bother intervening in any form of Israeli-Syrian conflict. Except maybe funds and munitions, exactly what China would do for Iran if Iran decided to attack Israel as well. And get stomped of course. This is the country that couldn't defeat a weakened, gassed-to-buggery Iraqi Army, despite owning a country oodles of times larger than Iraq and by sending vast numbers of their soldiers (mostly boys, apparently) to wander across the battlefield to demoralise the Iraqi machine gunners. It worked (if not strategically or even operationally), but it's demonstrably pathetic tactics.
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3 RepliesProbably extremely unlikely, but couldn't China aid the US instead in exchange for retaining the same(or possibly greater) share of oil they would normally import from Iran if Iran tries to force them into war with the US?
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China and Russia know better than to get into a confrontation with the US. We'd cause a helluva lot more damage to them then they could do to us, and they know it. China can change oil producers to Venezuela easily enough, and Russia is dropping Assad so their public image isn't permanently tarnished by association. Syria and Iran do not have the political capital or leverage to bring in either of those global powers as war allies against a western nation.
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2 RepliesIran cannot force China into a war. If the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran it would probably annoy China, but they don't want to fight a war with the United States. The reason that we don't want to get involved in Iran is that they have several times the population of Iraq coupled with the dislike of foreign powers of Afghanistan.
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8 RepliesIf Iran gets their hands on a nuke they will attack Israel. Its only a matter of time.
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14 Replies[quote]Iran in itself can't attack Israel[/quote] Yes they can. They could easily attack Israel via their Revolutionary Guards Qud's Force. The Qud's Force already has personnel in Syria, so it makes sense that they would use them to mount some sort of strike on Israel (particularly Tel Aviv like they've warned).
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