Probability isn't proof. So say you go with "probability", and you ban a few users who just had remarkably untimely disconnects.
Was it worth it to you to drop a hammer on exploiting users, even if a few innocents have a hammer drop on them too?
Hell, PSN was down for 4 days during the holidays. Just consider that "time served" for all. BOOM.
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Why should I serve the time for your Cheats? Does not compute.