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11/17/2014 4:45:31 AM
59
Statistical Analysis: Do players control their own Destiny when it comes to hitting level 30?
In addition to being an avid Destiny player, I am a PhD student in statistics. I was curious about the probability of dedicated raiders finding enough raid gear to hit level 30, so I investigated.
I found that if a player were to complete the raid every single week for over nine months straight (a total of 40 times), they would still have a >2% chance of not having enough armor pieces to hit level 30 (and this is assuming they already have an exotic). If you took a sample of 500,000 players doing this (given how many people have already done the raid, I think this is a conservative estimate), over 11,000 players will complete the raid 40 times without ever being able to hit level 30.
Assumptions, upcoming changes, and possible solutions are addressed in the report. I would skip over the methods sections, unless you like conditional probability problems, in which case go for it. If you guys want, I can post the excel file with the matrices as well. Please excuse the lab-style format; it was the template I had on my desktop at the time.
Let me know what you guys think!
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2 RepliesIt's been mentioned before, but--speaking as a raid virgin, here--it seems like it would be smart to implement some sort of raid-specific currency as an automatic drop for each chest, each boss, or just from Atheon. Then add a vendor (or add a new purpose to Xur?) where you can spend your raid currency to buy raid rewards. Setting the price for gear in that economy is a job for someone with better context, but the major advantage there would be to cap the number of raids you can go on without completing your set. Every 4 completions (or whatever) earns you a piece of gear for sure, without the need to depend on the RNG to finally get you the boots you need rather than your third duplicate chest piece.
