Saw this article with the above title on Cracked.com yesterday, but I haven't seen anyone talking about it here.
Since the article is fairly long, here's a brief summary (click on the link above for more):
[quote][b]TL;DR Summary[/b]
The main argument of the article is that the video game industry is headed for another crash like the [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983]video game crash of 1983[/url]. Here are the arguments why:
5. We put people who don't know gaming in charge
(Execs at large game developers tend to have little experience in game design/development)
4. Budgets have gone insane, and that's making innovation impossible
(Making a game costs so much money that studios are hesitant to take risks)
3. Publishers are gaming the review system
(Video game reviewers/journalists rely on ad revenue from the very companies they're purportedly reviewing, and combined with the widespread industry practices of providing swag, comps, early access, and VIP treatment for game journalists/reviewers, gamers are losing trust in video game reviews)
2. You're always flying blind
(Innovations in hardware and software mean that game developers are frequently coding for systems that don't exist yet, so early gameplay trailers rarely end up looking like the final game, causing further loss of customer trust)
1. The industry is extremely exploitative, and it's driving away talent
(Developers and publishers put extreme demands on their employees for very low pay and very poor job security, and talented people who feel exploited may leave for a different industry with more stable working conditions and better pay)[/quote]
What are your thoughts on this? To avoid making the OP too long, I'll reply with my own opinion in a separate post.
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Edited by FoMan123: 12/13/2013 10:03:08 PMIn my opinion, the article raises some legitimate gripes about the industry (and perhaps a little too obviously from the point of view of a jaded freelance programmer), but the idea that any of these things could cause a crash is a little too extreme. The video game crash of 1983 was actually caused by a combination of factors that tend to be the [i]opposite[/i] of what we see today. Namely: 1. Due to limited hardware and (relatively) primitive software, games were [i]too easy[/i] and too fast to develop. 2. Similarly, the simplicity of hardware in 1983 made CONSOLES too easy and too fast to develop. 3. Everybody trying to horn in on the success of Atari and Commodore in the first- and second- console generations resulted in a glut of consoles and game cartridges on the market. 4. Lack of digital downloads and the huge size of both consoles and game cartridges meant that toy/game stores had limited space to hold inventory. 5. Too many clones/copycat games in stores and the lack of widespread, unbiased media/press coverage of video games resulted in loss of consumer confidence, and they stopped buying games. 6. Retail tried to return unsold inventory, but game developers weren't making any money and couldn't afford buybacks. 7. Burned by this, retail exited the video game sales industry and game consumers moved on to PCs (remember that this was still 2 years before NES). 8. Industry crashes. Looking at the above list, and today's video game industry, we can see a number of factors that would prevent a crash: - Digital downloads and platform ecosystems mean that game devs and publishers no longer have to rely on 3rd party retail (though, obviously, console manufacturers still do to some extent) - Big AAA games today require years of development, huge teams, and millions of dollars. You can't make a AAA game with two dudes in a garage anymore. While this may still result in "genre clones" (see: military first-person shooters), this tends to disadvantage unoriginal individual game developers rather than the industry as a whole. - Large gaming platforms have content curation systems in place [i]specifically[/i] to prevent clones and buggy games. See: Xbox's policies for indie games as compared to the Apple iOS Store, and compare the overall quality and quantity of games on each. - Console platforms are moving toward an "entertainment-based" ecosystem rather than pure gaming (TV, video, music, apps, internet browsing, etc.). Perhaps Microsoft more than Sony at this point, but the hope for both is that a bump in the video game industry would not result in the end of the console -- thus providing a buffer for game devs and publishers themselves as well. While I'm sure that there might eventually be some consumer backlash against individual devs/publishers/platforms based on some of the author's gripes, I see his article as, on the whole, entirely unpersuasive. The legitimate points that the author brought up are likely to be corrected by individual companies with innovative and successful business models -- not a crash of the entire industry.
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Oh, they forgot about YouTube f*cking everyone over.
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1 and 4 contradict themselves. Game prices were put up because the skill required in making them increased. Senior staff get paid very handsomely, and entry jobs start off well above minimum wage.
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Edited by Seggi: 12/14/2013 4:52:11 AMThat seems to be less "5 reasons the video game industry is about to crash" than it is "5 generally sucky things about the video game industry right now". For how much the game industry is stifling 'innovation', we've still got fairly exciting AAA games like Watch Dogs coming out soon - and much of the rest of the coming crop is most likely either at least unique enough to sell buckets of units, or part of a franchise that's always going to.
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I agree with points 3 and 5 but 4 is wrong look at indie games and giants like minecraft look how much money is made of that with relatively only a few people on the production of it.
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Eh, if it crashes, I'd be surprised. There are interesting points, but it more directly affects small time studios than the game industry as a whole.
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Lol. Nintendo isn't being affected by any of these reason's except number 1.
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Retards who say the video game industry is going to just CRASH any day now are idiots. Profits are larger than ever. More and more games are incorporating profit-efficient DLC. A quality game like GTA V just broke records. The list goes on. Are games worse? Hell yea, and the only relevant point I'm reading in the article is the "driving away talent" piece.
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I read about this on Neogaf. 5. We should have people who know how to run a company in charge, someone else can take care of the gaming stuff. 4. I agree about the budget but I don't see how it takes away innovation. 3. What about the recent reviews for CoD, do they have a way to prove this? 2. Not sure if they're talking about graphics or gameplay mechanics, but I've hardly ever seen trailers that didn't match the final game. 1. Indie games are on the rise, there's your talent.
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I agree entirely, except Steam is a beast that cannot die. Valve, who made the best PC and console games ever, is now a publisher of sorts with their "greenlight" program, and through them indie games are given the strength they need to bring their innovation to a world of big budget games. But the newest round of next gen games is a good sign that triple A titles are screwed.
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Biggest part for me is the killing of creative content. Unless you have money, you can't make a game. The only way you have money is by being a AAA title pumping out a game per year because that's what people have come to expect. Yes, there are exceptions (yay indie devs), but there are several big title games that hinder growth in the industry.
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Edited by Spartan Ken 15: 12/13/2013 10:57:01 PMI agree with some of the ideas in the article. I think the triple AAA game studio is stating to die out. It seems like over the last few years especially indie devs and kickstarters have exploded making games on extremely low budget and not needing a publisher for funding. Also not spending millions on advertising. Also I think $60.00 is way to expensive to pay for games, if you look on PC most new release games are $15.00 - $30.00 unless it is a Triple AAA. Steam has probably helped this with their extreme sales which make gaming affordable on most budgets. A more recent phenomenon is the rise of early access gaming. Thanks to Minecraft many pc DEVS are letting people buy into the alpha/beta and get the game on release which allows game devs to continue to get funding without even selling their game 100% complete.
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The real reasons why the gaming industry is going to crash: 1. Self entitled, whiny cry babies that is today's gamers. 2. Self entitled, whiny cry babies that is today's gamers. 3. Self entitled, whiny cry babies that is today's gamers. 4. Self entitled, whiny cry babies that is today's gamers. 5. Self entitled, whiny cry babies that is today's gamers.
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*cough* Youtube *cough*
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I believe this is what's called biased sensationalism. The author wants his opinion to be seen by as many people as possible, so he overdramatizes it.
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Then we'll enter a new age. [i]The Age of Crowdfunded Indies. [/i]
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Highly unlikely - But I'll ask this question to you. When do [i]you[/i] think this crash will happen then? It's actually pretty simple to evade this crash, if it does start to happen. People have to start opening their mouths and make a stand. Vote with your wallet etc. If you just stand there and stare into space and keep buying game all nilly willy, the crash [i]might[/i] happen
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Just euthanize people like Cliff Bleszinski and we'll be fine
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Given the size of the industry, and just how many people are willing to buy AAA shlock, I doubt we'll ever see a crash.
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I read this when it was posted. There were some interesting points, but like you said, another crash is a bit of a stretch.
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I haven't enjoyed a AAA game in a while
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Didn't you post this exact same thread about 5 years ago?
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INDIES R TEH FUTER!
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[quote]clickbait.com[/quote]But yeah the industry is in a bad way, but no signs of crash.
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It's not going to crash, but it's definitely going to take a few hits.
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this bites. ill have to store up as many good indies as i can before the shit hits the fan. digital media in general has been a whirlwind of fail this year.