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7/10/2013 12:48:53 AM
6
The Wii-U won't get destiny for two reasons:
A) The latest COD and Battlefield games sold around 20 million copies (of each game) on the 360/PS3 while only selling around 2 million copies (again of each) on PC/Wii. This means those markets arnt really worth developing for. The only profitable way would be if they were crappy easy to do ports, but anything requiring major development attention wouldn't be cost efficient. I know Destiny =\= CoD BO2 or BF3, but they're the best predictors to base off of ad the largest multi platform FPSs.
B) It is true that the Wii-u is technically superior to the 360/ps3, but with 1/4 the ram it is woefully lacking against the other two major next gens. While destiny is initially available on current and next gen, it is unrealistic to expect Bungie to continue developing for those current gen systems 5-10 years down the road. At some point destiny will become a PS4/One/(possibly PC) only title. Once that happens the Wii-U is no match hardware wise to run games designed for the specifications of its more powerful brethren.
As a side note/commentary on Nintendo this last problem illustrates the major technical issues with creating a next gen console that is 4x better than current gen but 1/4 weaker then other next gens. It artificially creates a ceiling where it simply will be unable to handle multi platform games after a point and any multi platform game to appear on the Wii-U will have to have severe sacrifices (either on the game as a whole or the Wii-u version) to meet the hardware restrictions of the lesser console.
This is why the Wii-u continues to have shit for 3rd party support because it just doesn't make sense as a developer to develop for two different hardware specifications outside of the window immediately surrounding the change of console generations. Especially if the weaker system (Wii-u) has a dramatically smaller market share.
The only way for Nintendo to successfully compete for multi platform games would be to cut the Wii-u life cycle short and put out a Wii-U2 sometime within the next 3-4 years (vrs the Xbox one/ps4 lasting the next 10 years).
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I'm not really sure what a game being released summer 2014 has to do with future support from Bungie five to ten years from now. Especially since Destiny doesn't seem to be the kind of game that has sequels in the next year or two after it is released. No way they would stop support for any version of the game for platforms that it was already released on no matter how far in the future the new content comes. If future proofing the game was a concern from the developers, I have a hard time believing it would be on either one of those lower spec platforms in the first place. Sure, I understand the financial risk involved and the fact that these types of games haven't done as well on Nintendo platforms as on others. What I don't understand is how an entire group of console owners can be excluded from enjoying this beautifully crafted FPS multiplayer multiplatform experience on their console of choice. Why is no dev/publisher willing to take the challenge to change this? To become the breakthrough FPS hit on a new Nintendo console. If any shooter can do it, it has to be this one. If we were talking about a contracted exclusive, I wouldn't be here discussing this. I remember not too long ago near the beginning of the previous console generation when there were rumors that COD was going to go XB360 exclusive because the PS3 versions of the game weren't selling as well. Needless to say the games kept coming and COD as well as the FPS genre has continued to flourish on the platform. Of course the Wii U's lack of third party support is far worse in comparison to anything that the PS3 has had to go though. Although, am I wrong in my thinking that more games of this kind on the Wii U will create a buying audience for them on the platform? Not releasing anything at all (which is the strategy that most third parties are taking with the Wii U) just seems so backwards thinking to me. One person from a well known publisher complained recently about how few people were interacting with games on Nintendo Network, but that same publisher refuses to put their biggest online games on the console this year. Yes, it might take more man power and resources to get the game running on the Wii U. I understand where the Wii U specs are compared to the unreleased consoles coming later this year. I can't look at this though developer goggles though because I'm sitting here with a Wii U console that I think is the coolest thing ever despite it's shortcomings, and I want more games for it. Especially this one.
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After rereading your post I wanted to specifically reply to your thought of "making more games of genre x will increase the number of people buying games of genre x on that console." Unfortunately the market just doesn't work that way. The consoles already have well established reputations and it makes more sense for developers to develop based off of existing trends than to risk an enormous amount of resources on a gamble of changing those trends. It turns out people who want to play the newest Zelda, Mario, cart, smash brothers retreads will buy a Nintendo console. People who want to play the newest cutting edge shooters will buy a Sony/Microsoft console. That doesn't prevent people from buying and enjoying both, but for the foreseeable future that's how the battle lines are drawn. Unfortunately for Wii U owners they will be heavily excluded out of a majority of great titles whereas most Sony/Microsoft supporters will really only miss out on the newest installment of the aforementioned retreads. This creates a market where consumers want to buy a console that will get them the most mileage for their buck (I use my Wii everyday still, but I continue to be confounded by the sheer stupidity of it being unable to play DVDs) and producers will want to produce on consoles where they can sell the most product.
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Destiny 1 will be released in 2014, 2 in 2016, 3 in 2018, and the fourth and final installation in 2020. If they're expansion packs and not stand alone sequels then that is where the problem arises. Destiny 1 will perform identically across its platforms with the exception of better graphics on next gen. It is my firm belief that Destiny 1 as a cross generation release is meant to hook players from current gen into their new IP. Later they hope these players will adopt the next generation and move to the next generation Destiny titles (likely with the ability to carry over your character). From Destiny 2 or 3 on they're probably going to be next gen exclusives (5 years from now only indie developers will continue to develop for current gen). This is where Nintendo is in a conundrum. The Wii isn't strong enough to run Destiny so it can't be used as an early adoption console. The Wii-U is strong enough to run the less resource intensive current gen version, but it will be unable to run the more intensive next gen version. If Bungie follows the strategy that I'm fairly certain they're going to, then it leaves Nintendo without a dog in this race. Also this is all based off hardware specs. I'm not going into online play which seems to be a distant 3rd to the other two consoles. I'm sure the Wii-U is cool and has some cool features. It is unfortunate that no one but Nintendo really wants to develop games for that console. Your really cant blame them when developers of shooters, as an example, can sell 1000% more copies on Sony and Microsoft platforms. If Wii U sells 1 million copies at $60 vs 20 million copies total on PS4 and One (which are almost so identical they'll require virtually no major development for either specific console as compared to what would be necessary to develop cross platform with the Wii U) then the numbers speak for themselves. The way Nintendo is developing their consoles would be kind of like developing true virtual reality peripherals, but they're only able to display SD ps2 quality graphics. There would undoubtably be a market for it, but a majority of the market wouldn't adopt the technology due to its extreme outdated graphics. At the end of the day a majority of people want the products that are competitively specc'd. Nintendos trade of gimmicky/innovative (read as pros and cons) peripherals for raw system specs is only going to continue to erode its marketshare of triple A titles. I bet before this generation is over most developers won't even make physical copies of games for Nintendo because the profit margin would be slim to none otherwise.
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Destiny does have sequels slated every 2 years, with a "Comet" DLC/expansion every year. That's in their contract with Activision.
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Sequels in what way though? When Bungie said the engine would last them ten years. I immediately thought about World of Warcraft. Expansions that increase the size of the game in later years.
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Honestly, I don't know. I imagine they are going to be some sort of separate releases but I would imagine them to be just major expansion packs because otherwise it would be difficult to import characters, or at least very awkward.
