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4/26/2013 8:27:05 AM
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Good News! Economy is improving: Growth Expected to be 3.2% First Quarter

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-26/economic-growth-in-u-s-probably-picked-up-in-first-quarter.html Saw this on BBC as well. Treasury Prediction: [quote]The world’s largest economy probably accelerated in the first quarter as consumer spending grew by the most in two years and U.S. businesses rebuilt inventories, economists said before a report today. Gross domestic product rose at a 3 percent annualized rate after expanding at a 0.4 percent pace in the final three months of 2012, according to the median forecast of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Audio Download: McCarthy Discusses Fed’s Move From Tapering A boost to wealth from rising stock prices and home valueshelped Americans cushion an increase in the payroll tax that has now begun to pinch. Recent data signal the strength in other parts of the economy may also not be sustained as across-the- board cuts in planned federal spending, together with slower stockpiling, may be restraining investment and employment. “We had strong growth driven by domestic demand,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The gain in consumer spending looks pretty impressive, given the tax increase.” At the same time, the first quarter “was misleadingly strong. We’re downshifting.” The Commerce Department will release the GDP figures at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Economists’ estimates ranged from growth of 1 percent to 3.8 percent. Another report at 9:55 a.m. may show the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low of 73.5 in April from 78.6 in March, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. The preliminary April reading was 72.3. Spending Climbs The GDP report may show consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate, the strongest since the first quarter of 2011, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Purchases advanced at a 1.8 percent pace from October through December. The lagged effect from a 2 percentage-point jump in the payroll tax at the start of 2013, and $85 billion in automatic budget cuts that began March 1, may take a toll this quarter. The economy will grow at 1.5 percent pace, before reaccelerating to an average 2.4 percent rate of expansion in the last six months of the year, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.[/quote] Click to see the full article. Good news I guess :D King Obama's prospects seem to be improving.

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  • Edited by A Good Troll: 4/26/2013 12:14:35 PM
    Long term, I think you're going to see a slowdown. A lot of the growth in consumer spending is debt-driven again. [url=http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm]Personal Savings Rates[/url] [quote]Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $310.9 billion in February, compared with $262.5 billion in January. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 2.6 percent in February, compared with 2.2 percent in January.[/quote] When individuals are only saving 2.2% of their income (on average - this means most poor/middle class people are saving 0% or less), you're going to have a problem eventually when they have to stop spending and start saving/paying down debt. The chart above shows how personal savings have decelerated heavily since the '80s and '90s. That was a healthy rally - when consumer spending was going up because wages were going up.

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