originally posted in:Sapphire
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No doubt you've heard Iran claiming 'any attack on Syria, is an attack on Iran' in wake of Israel's air strike on a weapons convey in Syria.
Syria - Russia's Israel
Iran - China's oil whore
Iran in itself can't attack Israel, even with a missile, which would be bound to get shot down within minutes. But both Syria and Iran are allies of the two biggest superpowers in Asia. Many times have we speculated this worst case scenario, but this event could actually bring it life.
Militarily, I'm not concerned about the safety of our mainland. If this were to happen decades in the future, I'd be very concerned about the life blood of American communication, our undefended and fragile satellites, a sure target to cripple one's army in an instant. Unfortunately, and probably fortunately for some, space combat isn't unrealistic, and we're going to need to protect our satellites in the future when such a threat becomes reality whether that be our communication or a possible SDI system around Earth.
Economically, I'm unsure if the US could find another country willing to loan much more money for us. If we're in a war -- with China and Russia -- our military spending will rise, high. All trade would be cut, and for us the impacts are less severe since moving our factories to a different country wouldn't be as economically straining as China's lost consumer base.
Who would China care about more: Iran's oil, or our consumerism? We don't have the time to ramp up our oil exports with the recent shale findings across the US to sell to China to relieve their dependence on Iran. And oil is essential, much more essential than Russia's need for influence on the middle east (Syria).
Believe it or not, Iran is holding all the cards, and they can wager their oil and force China into such a conflict. And Russia isn't out of the question either.
Could this actually be the beginning to a larger war?
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[quote]Iran in itself can't attack Israel[/quote] Yes they can. They could easily attack Israel via their Revolutionary Guards Qud's Force. The Qud's Force already has personnel in Syria, so it makes sense that they would use them to mount some sort of strike on Israel (particularly Tel Aviv like they've warned).