This is with Celestial Fire melee, and it seems the first fireball is the most reliable with a ~90% success, while second and third just have diminishing returns after that (~40% - ~10-5%)
Let me know from the poll if it works for other CF users please.
Edit:
On further testing, it seems that less distance to the target makes it more consistent, but it is still only around 40% of my procs that work, on a red bar that i'm leveled against.
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Ignore mine