A Potential Fix to the RNG---Is it TOO Random? (Long Post)
RNG is broken and this is a potential fix.
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RNG is broken but needs a different fix.
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RNG is not broken, drop rates are fine.
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I initially wrote this as a reply to another post, but wanted to share with you all. It applies to those with many exotics as well as those with none, and is an answer to the "too bad, so sad" argument given by many players with large exotic collections:
I think you're right and wrong. No, the hardcores don't have a "right" to exotics moreso than casual players. The problem isn't hardcores with lots of exotics, and it isn't even casuals with no exotics. The fact is, its a loot based game, and you can't expect to get the good loot if the time isn't put in.
The problem, in my opinion, is hardcores who DON'T have exotics. I've put 260-270 hours into Forsaken across 3 characters, and the only drops I've gotten are 1KV, Cerberus and Lord of Wolves. In my mind, that can't be okay. I do nothing differently from the other serious players. I play the same modes they do, I run all my milestones, and yet I have nothing. How is it possible that at this point, I do not have a single piece of year 2 exotic warlock armor, when I main a warlock?
I believe the answer lies in Bungie's RNG process. It is possible that that current RNG is broken system that is TOO random, which is possible. True random basically means any outcome is possible and there is not bias to influence one over the other. If the RNG system being used by Bungie is too close to true random, then that means for each player who has all exotics, there will be a player who puts in the same amount of time and has none. I am assuming this is the logical flaw in their system, but unless there is a public outcry then Bungie won't even think about fixing it.
Yes, this is a bold claim seeing as I do not know how the RNG works. However, I think that given the distribution of players with many and few exotics, it is safe to assume that the developers got too caught up in the "randomness" aspect of the RNG. What I am saying is not that they should up the drop rates in that system, but build a safety mechanism to prevent players like me from being deterred from playing. If a player has put in a certain amount of gameplay, whether quantified through hours, activity completions or whatever they choose, their chance of an exotic should begin to rise. Essentially, the longer you go without an exotic, the better chance you should have of finding one.
I am not saying that there should be a strict limit (i.e. play 15 hours and you are guaranteed a drop), although mathematically you would reach a point where you were nearly guaranteed a drop. The idea is that exotics should have more of a progression based feeling to them. As you go longer without one, your chance will rise, and then when you receive a drop it resets. If you receive a repeat drop, maybe it doesn't reset all the way as a sort of safety net.
What this fix would do is eliminate the possibility of going week after week without good drop, and with no assurance that you would see one in the future. The reason people stop playing is because they lose patience- they figure, "Well, I've already put in 40 hours over the past 7 days and gotten nothing, why should I believe that putting in 3 more today will get me anything?". Instead, this would be an island on the horizon, a light at the end of the tunnel if you will. Knowing that with each activity, and each hour they have a better chance would surely keep more people around. It is possible that the system is already like this, as I do not know how the RNG works. If that is the case, then it is far too subtle and needs to be amped up. I hope that you all take the time to read this brief essay, give your thoughts below, and answer the survey. Thanks, and eyes up Guardians.
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