What if its a scenario that defies all reason? Say a caravan of armed soldiers surrendering to one or two guards?
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I don't see how that defies all reason.
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That's not even something you can assign chance to, there's no way of quantifying it.
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Logic isn't quantifiable? I dont get why such a scenario needs to be quantified to be proven as unreasonable and strange.
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You haven't even explained the scenario, maybe that would be a good place to start.
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Im sorry I can't cite for that scenario, but if israel managed to triple their territory in six days despite enemies on all sides and suffered few casualties, how do you explain that? Luck? Pure strength?
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I have no idea what you're talking about and I suspect you don't either.