From my experience the drop rate of an exotic in the crucible is about 0.5%.
I have almost 1600 games of crucible played.
I have gotten 8 exotics from the crucible.
Making the drop rate about 0.5%. In other words, one exotic in 200 games.
[spoiler]Exotics i've gotten in the crucible:
-Hawkmoon (my first exotic)
-Ice Breaker x 2
-Patiencen and Time
-Suros Regime
-Monte Carlo
-Dragon's Breath
-4th Horseman[/spoiler]
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