There are two principal methods used to generate random numbers. The first method measures some physical phenomenon that is expected to be random and then compensates for possible biases in the measurement process. Example sources include measuring atmospheric noise, thermal noise, and other external electromagnetic and quantum phenomena.
The second method uses computational algorithms that can produce long sequences of apparently random results, which are in fact completely determined by a shorter initial value, known as a seed or key. The latter type are often called pseudorandom number generators.
A "random number generator" based solely on deterministic computation cannot be regarded as a "true" random number generator in the purest sense of the word, since their output is inherently predictable if all seed values are known. In practice however they are sufficient for most tasks such as computer games.
You may already be familiar with how seed keys work if you have played a game like Minecraft. Effectively an algorithm needs an input (a word, number, or date time stamp) in order generate an output (the unique identifier of a Gjallarhorn). In Minecraft this is a random word you can enter yourself before the level is generated.
In Destiny this key is not immediately apparent, however I've been working with a friend and fellow PhD student in statistical analysis who's at the Universidad de los Monstruos to see if we can come up with an answer for a bit of fun.
Over a protracted period of time, say 300 hours, if the RNG is based on the date and time, you should hit the necessary touch points to convert an engram to a Gjallarhorn with a drop probability of 0.39, but at 800+ hours this rises to a probability of 0.999. If RNG was based on when you obtain or decrypt the engram, everyone who plays more than casually should definately have one by now. This led us to the conclusion that the key in the game must be another factor.
We've been looking at some figures based on old data mined from both Destiny stat sites, connecting to Destiny servers, plus some of the Grimoire data and figured out why it takes some people so long to get the much loved gun. It's actually based on your gamer tag. This is a massively flawed approach by the Destiny developers in the sense of expressing true randomness, but as each gamer tag is guaranteed to be different it provides a sophisticated way of keeping the drops of each type of exotic spread out over a period of time.
Using the series of letters and numbers as the seed in a linear congruential generator gives us an (almost! We are still refining our models) exact predication of when the Gjallarhorn will drop. We've also been able to use a brute force method based on standard dictionary words to identify what the optimum possible gamer tag is to get a Gjallarhorn in the fastest possible time:
CredulousNyaffU1
Now I know everyone will want to use that, so I can publish a list on my site, or if people prefer, feel free to reply and I will assign you your own personal one!
When someone tells you RNGesus hates you, it's not you, it's your gamer tag, so don't believe everything you read!
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As most people in the comments are now pointing it out, I might as well come clean, no this is not true.
There is no Universidad de los Monstruous (Monsters University).
Credulous = Gulliable
Nyaff = Idiot
Also in there... "come up with an answer for a bit of fun" and "don't believe everything you read".
Kudos to TraiN RexX for being the first person to spot it and Slycer268 for recognising the university.
To those who called me a troll, I guess you may be right. I'm old school, in my day we called it a prank.
Sorry to those of you looking disappointed... that gamer tag is still available though. Might grab it myself.
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THIS would be a correct use of the #satire tag. I have never seen a real piece of satire on these forums, yet I constantly see scrubs posting things that would more accurately be described as irony or sarcasm. THE WHOLE POINT OF SATIRE IS THAT YOU DON'T TELL THE AUDIENCE THAT IT'S SATIRE! [spoiler]unless a bunch of people actually believe it (like this post) and it's causing a problem [/spoiler]
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The invention of the internet has truly been a boon to trolls. The old ways just haven't been as viable since the invention of cars... [spoiler]Get it?[/spoiler]
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Great post! [spoiler]Monsters University...LOL[/spoiler]
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Edited by ElonSkywalker: 4/29/2015 4:43:42 PMNever mind
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"if the RNG is based on the date and time" ... and here is the crux of the problem you are trying to solve. That is a HUGE assumption about their RNG system that has no substantiation. And in all likelihood it is not a seed generating a time that you are now allowed to get ghorn based off your name. The amount of flaws and fixes needed associated with that version of RNG is huge and simply not likely. It sounds like your saying a seed is created from your gamertag then used in a psuedorandom generator, fomr which when the sequence for ghorn is associated with a time then when said time is reached, ghorn will now be "available". Obviously not guaranteed because you would be doing an activity which ghorn drop is impossible. However with this method the RNG would have to be recalculated every time the loot table changed.... Not likely, and definitely ruins your prediction chances, especially because we know bungie changes the weighting of items in the RNG. Evidence being when Dark below dropped, likelihood of Dark below exotics far outweighed vanilla destiny exotics. People were getting NLB right and left and far less of the old exotics. Also finding the prime needed for the RNG through reverse engineering without knowing the algorithm is simply impossible. If we knew it was based on a Mersenne Twister for example it would be more plausible. Bottom line, either this person is a total BS troll, or they are making some very wild baseless assumptions as a starting point and going from there, which in the end is a terrible bad method, guaranteeing a miss. Ignore this nonsense.
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At first I was like whoa and then the I read the university name lol
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What are my chances of a drop with my gamer tag of ghov502
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Edited by Tekn0z: 4/29/2015 4:25:04 PMNice troll however the university name is a dead giveaway. "Universidad de los Monstruos" is "Monsters, Inc.". Besides, I'm a system software programmer myself and using the bit stuffed value of a string from a gamer tag is amateur level stuff. Even college students know better than use that as a seed for a PRNG. Would be pretty shocking if Bungie really did though LOL
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Rather than give us a list of names with better probabilities could you make a string calculator that will create a number representing your average probability of obtaining one? Something that all the players can use (assuming many don't want to change their names over a game)
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Saw one person get 6 exotics yesterday from various activities while I pulled shards and energies every time :/. Got my 4th fang and 0 black hammers, 0 hungers, 0 WoCs. Random my ASS! [spoiler]Yeah I'm real salty... REALLY lol[/spoiler]
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*slow clap* Take note all you satire scrubs, this is some high grade chain-pulling.
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Both my ballerhorns were obtained around 7pm central. crazy huh?
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Universidad de los Monstruos?
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I seriously think that RNG is tied to things you have equipped like armour, weapons, emblems, ship, class items, shaders, etc and the types of activities you are doing. If you always do the same activities with the same gear equipped, and still haven't got the item that you wany, I suggest changing some things up and see what happens.
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Be great if you could provide any solid evidence that it is based on you're gamer tag.
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Edited by Pyrotech707: 4/29/2015 3:35:12 PMThis seems like a troll post to me but wether it is real or a troll, I commend you anyway. If is real than wow, world shattering, if it is a troll, which is my initial leaning, than it is a very well thought out troll so good job.
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Edited by Zenteion: 4/29/2015 3:33:36 PMWrong! this is how to get one Be a scrub Play once a month When you do play go into patrol and kill a dreg Get legendary engram Give the engram to the guy in the tower who only seems to gives out gjallarporns to scrubs Obtain gjallarporn Then go to destiny forum and tell us how you earned it even tho you have like 2 days game time
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If what you're saying is true, then what happens if you change your gamertag?
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my GT got me my gjallarhorn after 12 hours of gameplay . Thanks Microsoft !
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Interesting
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Interesting. My son keeps telling me that I must be lucky because of all the exotic drops I keep getting 3 x Truths, 2 Gjallarhorns and Hawkmoon to name a few. Never thought it could be something to do with my gamer tag.
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orSimply. #include <stdlib.h> #include <stdio.h> /* function main begins program execution */ int main() { printf("%d", RAND_MAX); return 0; /* indicates successful termination */ } /* end main */
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Would you mind giving me a personal gamer tag? My luck is terrible.
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Finally got my ghorn. RNG deters me no longer!
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It's funny because the hurt is true.
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I am assuming this is a troll post. Although, I remember my days in pokemon were your chances to get a "shiny" was based on in game elements as well as your name in the game. So I suppose it is possible.