Oh great Charlemagne, I'm humbled for you to grace my presence!
While I do agree with you in lore-wise reasoning on why Xûr won't be at the Reef, I don't view such a thing not happening somehow in some way. Xûr is perhaps the one thing that keeps guardians coming back out of anything, so say for him to sell some kind of incentive in the reef, like a special buff or item, would encourage players to purchase the expansion and bring player interest into the new location.
Xûr would not have to solely show up at the tower though, perhaps he could be two places at once? And then I suppose Bungie would have an interesting lore reason behind this aspect, and further bring insight and mystery into the character and his masters.
The reason I'm compelled to think this is because I wonder on how Bungie will fill up the reef with NPC's, the easiest thing to do would be to simply add 3 new "reef" factions, but that seems incredibly horrid of a thought; although the potential implications for such might be interesting at first, only the elite of Destiny players will keep such interest well after the expansion has launched.
Xûr himself does not need to show up exclusively, it could be an entirely new character.... Another agent of the nine? The importance of that character bringing people back would still need to stand however, and such a character would have to play a similar importance.
And besides, my zeal over the monarchy cannot be unquenched by any awoken rival that may be found in the reef, give me a good reason to venture into the reef other than story elements! If I could, I would gladly set up shop in the reef, acting as the New Monarchy's emissary to the queen, but if only it were possible.
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