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4/9/2015 7:33:32 PM
7
The Statistics behind a Ghallarhorn drop, and where I'm at on the curve
Sooo, I don't have a ghallarhorn. Yep, I'm in that party.
Rather than whine about it (oh, I have done my share of complaining), I thought I'd break out some statistics.
[b]Assumptions[/b]: RNG is in play and impartial. Perhaps I'm wrong. But that's my assumption.
[u][b]Background Numbers[/b][/u]
There are currently 17 exotics that can drop as a reward. My drop count is in parenthesis if I've gotten multiples.
They are:
Hard Light
Hawkmoon (2)
Mida Multi-Tool
Monte Carlo (2)
No Land Beyond
Red Death (2)
SUROS Regime
The Last Word (2)
Universal Remote (2)
Ice Breaker
Patience and Time
Plan C
4th Horseman
Dragon's Breath (3)
Ghallarhorn
Thunderlord (2)
Truth (3)
Excluded: Vex Mythoclast, Necrochasm. These are raid specific.
Excluded: 247 Vesta Dynasty, Fate of all Fools, Lord of Wolves. These are not available.
Excluded: Exotic bounties: Pocket Infinity, Thorn, Bad Juju, Invective, Super Good Advice
I currently lack SUROS Regime, 4th Horseman, and Ghallarhorn.
I've received (as rewards) 23 exotics.
[u][b]The Statistics[/b][/u]
If every weapon has the same drop rate, then the chance of receiving a Ghallarhorn as an exotic reward is
1 out of 17, or 1/17 == 0.058824 or 5.8%
So, I have a 5% chance of getting a ghorn each time.
To put it another way, I have a 94.11% chance of NOT receiving a ghorn each time.
To determine the odds of not receiving a ghorn across multiple drops, I multiply the chance by itself each time.
So, the odds of not receiving a ghorn in 3 straight exotic drops is
94.11 * 94.11 * 94.11 = 83%
The odds are 83% that I will NOT receive a ghorn as the exotic in 3 straight drops.
[u][b]Where I'm At[/b][/u]
So when I track down the numbers, since I've received 23 exotics so far, that puts me at a 25% chance of not receiving a ghallarhorn even once during those 23 drops. 25%? Is that crazy? Insane? If someone told me, "look beaker, you're going to get 23 exotics, and there's a 1 in 4 chance you won't get a ghallarhorn", would I be upset at this point?
Nah. I don't think so. Honestly, I'm not that lucky of a person. To fall in the 25% category really doesn't surprise me.
[i]It's a bummer[/i], but it's not that surprising.
[u][b]When do I Start Crying Foul?[/b][/u]
I think when I get to the 10% point, I'll start belly aching. That's 38 exotic drops. 15 more for me. If, after 15 more exotics I still don't have a ghallarhorn, then I'll probably start complaining that something isn't fair.
[u][b]What about you?[/b][/u]
So what about you? If you're still lacking that one exotic you'd really like, how many exotics have you received without getting it? Where are you statistically?
[u][b]The Raw Numbers[/b][/u]
Exotic Drops in a row ==> Probably of Not Getting a your desired exotic even once during that time
0 ==> 100%
1 ==> 94%
2 ==> 89%
3 ==> 83%
4 ==> 78%
5 ==> 74%
6 ==> 70%
7 ==> 65%
8 ==> 62%
9 ==> 58%
10 ==> 55%
11 ==> 51%
12 ==> 48%
13 ==> 45%
14 ==> 43%
15 ==> 40%
16 ==> 38%
17 ==> 36%
18 ==> 34%
19 ==> 32%
20 ==> 30%
21 ==> 28%
22 ==> 26%
[b]23 ==> 25%[/b]
24 ==> 23%
25 ==> 22%
26 ==> 21%
27 ==> 19%
28 ==> 18%
29 ==> 17%
30 ==> 16%
31 ==> 15%
32 ==> 14%
33 ==> 14%
34 ==> 13%
35 ==> 12%
36 ==> 11%
37 ==> 11%
38 ==> 10%
39 ==> 9%
40 ==> 9%
41 ==> 8%
42 ==> 8%
43 ==> 7%
44 ==> 7%
45 ==> 7%
46 ==> 6%
47 ==> 6%
48 ==> 5%
49 ==> 5%
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2 RepliesEdited by Der Sheff: 4/10/2015 8:12:52 PMI like the math, but can say out of experience, it is irrelevant. I have received a minimum of two of every exotic as a drop except Red Death (only one) and Hard Light (never). I am probably pushing 200 opportunities or more between Nightfalls and raid drops. I have four Ghallarhorns, three Crux and three Mythoclast. I have gotten at least six Suros, six Patience and Time and five Dragon's Breath and four Thunderlords. I bought Hard Light off of Xûr, otherwise I still wouldn't have it. Another elusive little bugger is the new raid sparrow. I cannot get one. I haven't checked my hard mode completions in a little while, but it feels like I should have one by now. Anyhow, there are some things that need to be sold by Xür because the game will not yield them for some players.
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Already got the MIDA 5 times, make it stop please!! i just want the Hawkmoon.
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1 ReplyThere is a reason that casinos in particular have a board up that tells you that the previous numbers were in a roulette game for example. As humans we want to believe that past results will change future outcome. Well if the last three times it rolled red I should bet black right? Wrong. Numbers, cards and the like do not remember the last roll. If the system is truly random then you are right you have a 5.8% chance every time you play that you will get a ghorn as a drop. End of story. You cannot factor in all the times you have played in the past because you still have a %5.8 chance to get it. "But wait I've played 1000 night falls and still haven't gotten it, since I've played 1000 times my odds should have went up right?" Wrong, every run is fresh and past runs don't matter, numbers don't matter, 5.8% across the board every time.
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Played 6 months without getting a GHorn. Got 4 in the last 2 weeks. Two from Hard Atheon CP, one from Normal Deathsinger, and one from a Nightfall. Forget all the math-each drop is its own event. Previous drops have no bearing.
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3 RepliesMy only question is, do we know if the chances are divided by exotic weapon and exotic armor or is it just an exotic drop in general. That would change your numbers because then you would have to include exotic armors as well.
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3 RepliesEdited by Siniskamikaze: 4/10/2015 8:46:50 PMYeah but what about the chances of getting an exotic drop? I mean you have a 5,8 chance to get gjally ( assuming all the exotics weapons have the same drop rate and excuse me here but after 7 months screwing with RNG its pretty obvious that drops are weightened ) IF you have an exotic weapon drop .. Exotic drop chances are low.. Plus on nightfall exotic armors are included.. So what i would really like to know is what is the actual chance of getting the specific weapon.. That would be helpful .. Note1: i have gjallarhorn Note2: after 7 months in this game i dont believe that this is how the system works.. I cannot put it in math but i am pretty sure Bungie makes weapons drop more or less when they want to.. Thats why DLC exotics were so common when TDB released , thats why only 50 per cent of the player base have Gjallarhorn etc ...
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4 RepliesThere is nothing you can do about except keep hitting exotic drop points every week. It is just a gun. You made it this far without it, kid.
