Most of us are blinded by the holiness of RNGsus. But I'm a sceptic and a non-believer, so I have a theory of why YOU wont get a certain weapon, but others will.
Now, we all think that it's all based on RNG, but I don't really think so. I do understand the concept of randomness, but I don't believe that's a fact in this concern.
I am gonna use two examples:
Player 1:
- has Thunderlord and Gjallarhorn
- want Ice Breaker and SUROS
Player 2:
- has SUROS and Ice Breaker
- want Thunderlord and Gjallarhorn
Player 1 and 2 keeps on grinding for their wanted weapons, but usually get random crap drops. And to top that, they get multiple drops of the exotics they already have. (like me, i've gotten 3 No Land Beyond from Crota)
And this is where my theory comes in...
Bungie has a system (fixed RNG), that basicly makes it (nearly) impossible for you to get the weapons you are missing. It's like your profile is assigned to certain weapons. Me, I get SUROS all the time.
So a simple example for this system would be:
"Drops assigned to Player 1: Thunderlord, Gjallarhorn etc" (these are the drops always handed out)
"Drops avoided for Player 1: Ice Breaker, SUROS, etc" ( these are the drops that might never happen)
(same with Player 2,3,4,5,6,7, infinity)
I know there are many RNGsus followers out there, and by all means, praise him! But me, I'm not fooled by this non-sense anymore. Just like anything else, Bungie likes to control the community, so they control RNG as well.
Yeah, I know, Bungie started selling Ice Breaker, which was hard to get for many of us. But that was also their decision. Why do you think it became available shortly after CE? To soothe the masses to keep them playing.
Conclusion: Players will always get the same drops, and will most likely never get that one thing they are missing (in my case Gjallarhorn).
Hope i made sense. I've been thinking about this for a long time, but never been able to put a word to it. Maybe i wasn't able now either... I might be wrong, but I'm sure my points makes it clear enough.
[b]*edit 1*[/b]
I see many say they have all Exotics, and asks me to explain that. Well, that's cause Bungie decided that your profile, amongst others, could. That's why.
[b]*edit 2*[/b]
*sigh* This wasn't actually meant to be a post about weapons never dropping, cause they can. It's just that it is controlled by Bungie. Sure, some of you have played for 500 hours and finally gotten a certain weapon. But because the community is continously growing, Bungie decides to hand out X amount of, ie, GHs a day, but still manage to control the weapon flow.
[b]*edit 3*[/b]
People seem to be believe I'm saying stuff never drops. If it says that somewhere in my post (I've tried to reword myself), that's not what I'm saying. Please, read my post over again, especially "edit 2".
[b]*edit 4*[/b]
Well, I expected a lot of flaming since my so called theory is far fatched, flawed and simply crappy :P
I've tried my best to answer most posts I've seen fit. Thankfully most have been serious posts. Some not.
I am now going to get a beer and my whisky bottle, sit down, and play some Strikes. Will check in later to see if this is still alive.
Hopefully I will prove myself wrong and get GH tonight... hrhrhhr
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The rate at which exotics drop is probably an algorithm tied to the number of active players in the game world in order to keep exotics from becoming common. Also like gambling the more you play the more likely you increase your chances of getting exotics. Vice versa, the gambling also means every once in a while someone will get lucky. But Bungie plays with the drop ratio for individual items by adjusting the weight of the drop. That's why No Land Beyond drops so much because it has a much higher weight than Red Death. So, the algorithm will drop more NLBs to keep the drop rate constant, but it can't drop more Ice Breakers or Gallys or Red Deaths especially as new drops. The algorithm must have a bug where if you already have an exotic it's okay to drop it more for you because it doesn't change the overall rate of new drops for number of players in the game world. That's why people tend to get more of the exotics they already have as opposed to exotics they don't. Just my opinion not based on hard statistical evidence just game play experience in other RNG games and my experience in Vegas.
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I laugh at you're petty 500 hour playtime. Behold my 700+ hours yet I don't complain about exotic drops praise me
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I got suros ghorn ib vex and hawkmoon I need the sucky ones like red Monte and hardlight
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I agree with you 100% if were not counting the bounty weapons, and since xur sold universal remote this week, i have every exotic except the gally, which coincidentally is the most sought after/best gun in game. i actually have on ALL 3 characters(all 32) stuff like: patience and time, icebreakers, hunger of crotas. black hammers, fatebringers,corrective measure, truth, fang of ir yut, vex mythoclast, etc. i have 2- suros regime, atheon epilogue, vision of confluence, abyss defiant i have all crota weapons (including the necrochasm) except the sword breaker. I have all the vog weapons (including the pratoreian foil and timepiece). the only exotic armor i dont have that is worthy is the helm of saint 14. but my point is, i still have no gally. 476 hours, 81 minutes (bungie time not xbox time, i dont know how to look that up) 362 strikes 243 crucible 75 raid clears not sure about my vanguard/crptarch levels but im sure they are up there. ive seen the gally drop once in crucible in november, and twice in the last 2 weeks during crota, when i got stuff like truth, no land beyond, mida tool.
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I guess bungie loves me....i have gotten every exotic 3 times over. 6 total ghorns and 10+ mythos.
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I must not be assigned Red Death :( yet I get Gjallarhorns, Suros Regimes, Ice Breaker, Thunder Lord and many others out the ass.
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Edited by brose one: 2/20/2015 10:22:45 PMI feel like it has something to do with what weapons you use. I want the Regime. I'm an AR user & I'd like to take that slut for a spin. it won't drop for me. the only time I use Hand Cannons is on patrol. my aim isn't great, so using them in co-op feels like I'm being carried. HC drops: Dead Orbit / Iron Banner / VoG / Thorn / Hawkmoon (x2) / TLW (x3) WTF??? I. don't. use. hand cannons why is RNGesus shoving them in every hole I have.??
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This is a really good theory actually. However, I have two questions for you. 1- Are you saying that someone at Bungie looks specifically at every profile and assigns them these weapon drops? If so that is farfetched because doing so would take years. My theory is that they just let a computer generate it for every person that logs in and the computer determines what you get by when you first logged on to Destiny. (ie. 1st in the world, 3,678th in the world) 2- Are you saying that someone at Bungie (or a computer if I'm correct) will completely block off a weapon, Gjhallarhorn for instance, from a player? I don't think Bungie would do that to any of their fans. However, I do believe that it is something like Player 1 has 1% Thunderlord, 30% Hard Light, and 14% MIDA Multi Tool
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I sort of agree I think that everybody has their own randomly generated drop table to others and you will only get the weapons assigned to it But... I could be wrong also Me for instance hundreds of hours put into this game and hard light and Suros avoid me like the plague I'm not even collecting exotics I have gally Thunder and ice braker and I allways get them dropping from me all the time but those 2 guns never ever have they dropped It might be completely random but like he says the people that have certain guns don't have the ones they want or they just refuse to drop for them
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My profile must not be assigned Suros, Red Death, or Ghorn
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Agree
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I have 6 Thunderlords but no Red Death
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Edited by Kage Goomba: 2/20/2015 9:55:45 PM#EDIT# - never mind...random is random is random.
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I think I can side to this theory I have no Gjallarhorn; been playing since the beta and day 1 My friend, has gotten his 5th Gjallarhorn, last night He doesn't need anymore than what he already has. If anything, 3 is fine, or even just 1
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This in a way kinda makes sense. I myself have received multiples of every exotic i have and I have all exotics except Hawkmoon 7 Thunderlords, 6 p&t ,3 hardlights, 3 ghorns. etc etc etc. For some reason though,none of those multiples ever turned into hawkmoon. I have been in at least 8 parties though where Hawkmoon dropped for other people,including others 2nd and 3rd one =\.
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So no red death for me? [spoiler]dammit.[/spoiler]
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Your theory is quite credible all i get i doodle's breath.
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Almost 1000 hours no thunderlord. Not that I would probably use it much. Just the only one I need minus ps exclusives
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Edited by rf_whisper: 2/20/2015 6:56:10 PMYour theory may be relatively reasonable, but technically incorrect. When it comes to random number generators, there is something called a seed. A seed value is very important, in that it allows you to make minor changes to a simulation (something that uses a random number generator), and keep the same random values to see the impact that the minor change had on the results. So, you may have a seed, that pulls the following random numbers from the generator: 0.9999999, .0132, 0.456, 0.35,..... Now, if I don't change the seed value, the next time I run the simulation, I would get the exact same string of random numbers: 0.9999999, .0132, 0.456, 0.35,..... So, lets say that the 0.9999999, nets you a Thunderlord. It's the 1st result on your string of random numbers. So, if the 1st result is a loot table that can pull a Thunderlord - you get it. If it's not, then you may not have another random roll that high until really far out in the string of random numbers - which may be outside the length of time you would on the game. If you fire the game up the next day, if the seed doesn't change - you once again lost your great roll. So, the question is how has Bungie set up their seeding system for characters in the game and how often does it change. If it doesn't change very often, or is cyclical (Seed1 is used on Mondays, Seed2 on Tuesdays, .... Seed7 on Sundays) - you could end up having characters that can't get drops. EDIT: So, everyone would have the same loot tables - but everyone would have different seeded random numbers hitting said loot tables. That is why you would get some players with multiples, while others with none.
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I actually agree with this theory but I feel it's more linked to characters and not accounts. I've gotten certain exotics only on certain characters multiple times, same for exotic bounties.
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I don't buy it. I have nearly all obtainable exotic weapons. I need red death, no land beyond, invective, hard light, pocket infinity and patience and time. Invective I just need to buy special ammo synths and it's done. Probably not gonna buy no land beyond or do any more exotic bounties. My point is, I have every other exotic and bought not one from xur. Maybe I'm just very lucky with drops, but I can't believe that THAT MANY exotics are in my "drop table" as you say. It's just random luck. That being said, I enjoy having a badass arsenal to choose from, but it's almost too much. Having to choose between gjallahorn and literally any other exotic is bad enough. But picking between icebreaker, suros, vex mythoclast and gjallahorn is impossible. I wish exotics were more rare and I had less of them. One other thing I've noticed though, I almost never get duplicates. Maybe I just play too much. ????
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You my friend might be onto something. All I ever seem to get from RNG is Suros, hardlight and Truth. Was finally able to get an ice breaker when Xur sold it a few weeks ago. Meanwhile a buddy of mine gets all the guns that don't drop for me (ice breaker and gjallarhorn). This dude has 1 of each on all 3 characters. Still grinding and hoping for the day that G-horn drops.
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I think you are onto something but it may not be solely account bound. I think every character you make has different rolls. For example on my titan i have found 3 or four icebreakers but have never seen it on my warlock or hunter but on my warlock ive seen 3 no land beyonds. I think certain weapons and armor are harder to drop based off of the characters created. And obviously its not impossible to get them all even on one character.
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Been talking about this for awhile little over 300 hours and 6 vexs later alot of people still never seen one.
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Got all the exotics...I guess Bungie deemed me worthy OR its RNG...you decide
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See I have icebreaker thunder lord and 3 Suros' can't get the Ghorn...